From looking at what happened and why the depth of the FF (Fernández-Fernández) victory could not be measured, we’re moving on to help answering the million-dollar question: can this be reversed?
Let´s consider three factors in which the hopes of the government were high:
1. That there was more participation than in the 2015 primary,
2. That the “cordón centro” responded well (Entre Ríos, Santa Fe, Córdoba and Mendoza) to equate the loss in the province of Buenos Aires, and
3. That the fear of Cristina’s return was stronger than the fear of economic adjustment.
None of the three factors happened, so now they need to shuffle and turn around.
In what does the government seem to trust now?
1. The natural increase in participation between the primaries (PASO) and the general election, as happened in 2015 and 2017;
2. Greater polarization via dilution of the anti-K vote that was fragmented in the primary (voters of Lavagna, Espert and Gómez Centurión);
3. Recover middle-class votes via government’s announcements;
4. Recover votes from people who would have given a warning to the government, but who won’t necessarily discharge him from his position.
To sum up, under the assumption that the FF touched their roof and could no longer receive votes (obviously this hypothesis favors the calculations of the government):
An optimist would say: “Yes, we can!”. Mathematically the calculation is beautiful, but…it obviates at least two issues:
1. That there won’t be such a strong economic turbulence that people ask for another storm pilot; and
2. That the majority does not believe that the election already is over (with Alberto surely being the future president), so that they have an incentive to vote this time (if they hadn’t in the PASO), or to change the vote towards Macri.
Sounds hard, doesn’t it?
Translation from Spanish by Kim Radestock