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August 15, 2019

Sounds hard, doesn’t it?

(7 Miradas) The phrase that best suits these calculations is the one of Ian Fleming when he described the James Bond novels: “they are beyond the probable, but not beyond the impossible.”
By Carlos Fara
@carlosfara
Mauricio Macri - Elecciones Octubre 2019

(7 Miradas) 

From looking at what happened and why the depth of the FF (Fernández-Fernández) victory could not be measured, we’re moving on to help answering the million-dollar question: can this be reversed? 

Let´s consider three factors in which the hopes of the government were high:

 1. That there was more participation than in the 2015 primary,

2. That the “cordón centro” responded well (Entre Ríos, Santa Fe, Córdoba and Mendoza) to equate the loss in the province of Buenos Aires, and

3. That the fear of Cristina’s return was stronger than the fear of economic adjustment.

None of the three factors happened, so now they need to shuffle and turn around.

In what does the government seem to trust now?

1. The natural increase in participation between the primaries (PASO) and the general election, as happened in 2015 and 2017;

2. Greater polarization via dilution of the anti-K vote that was fragmented in the primary (voters of Lavagna, Espert and Gómez Centurión);

3. Recover middle-class votes via government’s announcements;

4. Recover votes from people who would have given a warning to the government, but who won’t necessarily discharge him from his position.

To sum up, under the assumption that the FF touched their roof and could no longer receive votes (obviously this hypothesis favors the calculations of the government):

  • In the first round of 2015, 2 million people, who did not attend the PASO, went to vote, which caused that the primary picture changed;
  • On that first shift the three main candidates increased their votes, especially Macri (1.810.000), and then Massa (750.000);
  • A greater polarization is now the current scenario, so let’s assume that 2 million are added up again and assigned to Macri, and a possible drop in contested blank votes is also granted (200.000 votes);
  • That would give a share of 26.720.000, with some 25.800.000 positive votes (which are the ones that are of interest now);
  • In this context, the FF would get 45% and Macri – Pichetto 39%;
  • Then they should liquefy other opposition votes in favor of the president, and would see if the government’s announces have an effect, and a reissue of the appeal to fear a return of CFK;
  • With all that they get to the blessed second round.

An optimist would say: “Yes, we can!”. Mathematically the calculation is beautiful, but…it obviates at least two issues:

1. That there won’t be such a strong economic turbulence that people ask for another storm pilot; and

2. That the majority does not believe that the election already is over (with Alberto surely being the future president), so that they have an incentive to vote this time (if they hadn’t in the PASO), or to change the vote towards Macri.

Sounds hard, doesn’t it?

Translation from Spanish by Kim Radestock

Source: 7 Miradas (Buenos Aires, Argentina)

Carlos Fara
Carlos Fara
Presidente de Carlos Fara & Asociados desde 1991. Lleva más de 30 años dedicados a la consultoría política. Se especializa en Opinión Pública, Campañas Electorales y Comunicación de Gobierno. Ha recibido varios premios: entre ellos, el Premio Aristóteles a la Excelencia 2010 en el Dream Team del año, que se compone por los diez mejores consultores a nivel mundial en materia de campañas políticas. Ha participado en más de 160 campañas electorales en Argentina y Latinoamérica. Es ex presidente de la Asociación Latinoamericana de Consultores Políticos (ALaCoP), y fue el primer presidente de la Asociación Argentina de Consultores Políticos (AsACoP). Fue miembro del board de la International Association of Political Consultants (IAPC). Autor del primer libro en español dedicado íntegramente a la profesión, “¿Cómo ser un consultor político?”, que recibió el Premio de ALaCoP al Mejor Libro 2018.
Twitter: @carlosfara